When investors create their long-term investment plan, ideally they should rely on hard data and a time-tested financial philosophy to help them make decisions. The day-to-day seesaw of the stock market should be set aside in favor of a measured, rational plan designed to weather any obstacle ahead. On paper, the map is easy to understand, and seems even easier to follow. But in reality, any personal financial odyssey will be beset with sirens on the road calling to lead the investor astray... Read more >

As the summer season starts, many families will retreat to the lake cabin, the beach, or perhaps embark on the Great American Road Trip. But even relaxation takes planning, and lessons learned from past trips can make the journey smoother in the long-run. Before we talk about where we are going, let’s take a look in the rearview mirror. The past 18 months have been a bit of a rollercoaster; however, the S&P 500 is only up 3-4% since late January 2018... Read more >

The end of the first quarter 2019 capped one of the best starts to a year in decades, leaving investors with a sunny disposition as springtime emerges. This was in stark contrast to the tumultuous market that ensued in the fourth quarter of 2018, when global equity markets were down 10-20%. The swift rebound was likely stronger than most people expected and it may feel like the fourth quarter sell-off is a distant memory... Read more >

2018 was a unique year, a bit of a rollercoaster. The year started with a lot of market volatility and ended with even more drama. As you may recall, January saw equity markets continue their ascent, extending the strong returns from 2017. The “fear of missing out” on the next great investment trend reached a fever pitch. Then, in late January and through February, equity markets sharply pulled back by more than 10% from their highs... Read more >

U.S. investors must have turned down the volume on the obligatory negative headlines from mass media during the quarter, as U.S. equities posted solid returns. Volatility in U.S. equities has been very low since June. For the quarter, the S&P 500 did not experience a single trading day with returns of +/- 1%. Investors are accepting as status quo the political headlines, continued U.S. economic growth...  Read more >

Summer months in the market tend to be more docile and come with lower trading volume and volatility as investors chase sunshine rather than returns. However, just like mosquitos, macro headlines tend to emerge as unexpected guests. The recent narrative has been dominated by trade tariff rhetoric which has escalated into a global tit-for-tat...  Read more >

The first quarter left a lot of investors feeling like the mountain climber in the Price Is Right game, as equity markets steadily ascended until the end of January when they fell precipitously. Many market participants entered the year expecting last year’s historically low volatility to continue. However, in our 4Q 2017 letter, we encouraged investors to be prepared for higher volatility and even a 10% correction...  Read more >

Coming into the year, we had a favorable outlook for the economy and equity markets despite political noise, geopolitical risks and elevated valuations. Surprisingly, equity returns turned out to be stronger than expected.  Even fixed income had solid returns. Global central bank policy remained highly predictable which helped provide... Read more >

Steady as she goes. Strong market returns continue as many U.S. and international equities markets set new highs or are near prior peaks.  Risk assets continue to perform well despite an uptick in macro headlines with political noise, geopolitical threats, and natural disasters.  Investors have focused on fundamentals... Read more >

Most asset classes had positive returns during the second quarter of 2017, adding to gains seen in the first quarter.  The positive momentum continued as there was not any major headline news that impacted the markets.  Therefore, rather than "make a mountain out of a molehill” regarding any specific headline or theme... Read more >

The first quarter of 2017 was strong as equity markets advanced in each of the three months. Volatility, measured by the CBEO Volatility Index, had the second lowest quarterly reading ever.  Business and market sentiment has been increasingly positive and investors have been undeterred by any macro headlines such as the failed... Read more >

Shifting winds based on investors’ fears and hopes was the story of the year.  Coming into 2016, SilverOak expected increased market volatility and encouraged investors to stay committed to their investment plan and diversified portfolio.  We were correct in anticipating increased volatility as 2016 was an eventful year; though many... Read more >

The third quarter brought a fair amount of headline news beginning with the spillover of the Brexit vote in the second quarter and ending with Deutsche Bank and the presidential debates.  Despite the headlines, volatility was muted for much of the quarter and risk assets continued their strong performance from the lows set in mid-February... Read more >

Markets during the second quarter continued to be volatile as investors were confronted with geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over global growth.  The quarter ended with markets being surprised with the historic decision by UK voters to leave the European Union.  The decision caused equity markets to sell off... Read more >

The first quarter was a tale of two halves.  At the beginning of the year, we saw investors take risk off as concerns about global growth and geopolitical tensions rose.  Equity markets were down 10% - 20% through mid-February making many investors uneasy. The second half of the quarter helped calm those fears with equity markets... Read more >